In my last post, "The Great Comeback Part One - The worst of The Great Recession has passed: Are you ready?" I defined what The Great Comeback is and how it relates to the two phases of this recession we are in. I also described the connection and importance of globalization, and how The Great Comeback will begin with the return of consumer confidence, followed by investor confidence.

Then I pointed out that we are expecting the recessionary "bottom." Once you hit bottom, the only way out is up. The decline has ended, and recovery is at hand.

We are looking at a long procession of economic "bottoms" or "turning points" for different industries. The overall economy will also experience a time when the newspapers say we have "bottomed."

I think the bottoms have begun.

Let me share my top 5 6 reasons why I think this:

1. The US GDP in the 4th quarter of 2008 dropped 6.2% 6.3%. Worse yet, the GDP dropped 6.8% in the first quarter of 2009. In Q1 of 2009, the GDP fell 6.1%. 
What happens next:
I believe the second quarter of 2009 will show a small drop in GDP is expected to begin leveling off; the third quarter will be flat and the fourth quarter will be up. The overall economy is turning and will turn by the fourth quarter of 2009. The industries that will lead this turn (food, cosmetics, beverage, pharmaceuticals and inexpensive consumer electronics) will turn in the second quarter of 2009.

2. The US fiscal-stimulus package will inject $561 billion into the economy in 2009 and 2010.
What this means:
Real government spending in 2009 will go up between 2.5% and 3%. The interest rate cuts and tax rate cuts will take longer to have an impact, but direct government spending will result in real US GDP growth of between .6% and .9% in 2009. These funds are being deployed now and we will see the impacts soon.

3. Both the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which were at record lows in the first quarter of 2009, are moving upwards.
What this means:
Although US consumers are afraid, confused, and uncertain, their overall confidence is being regained and this, starting with non-cyclic necessities, will result in sector-by-sector recovery.

4. Consumer spending fell again in the first quarter of 2009, but ended the quarter with an upward turn increased in Q1.
What happens next:
The second quarter of 2009 will be flat will also see increases. The third quarter will see an increase of 1% and the fourth quarter, 2%. This will continue throughout 2009. The US consumer is alive and getting well, and it is the US consumer who will lead the Great Comeback; first in the US, then China, then Europe and then the rest of the world.

5. This Great Recession has been severe, and so there exists a huge amount of pent-up demand.
What this means:
There is a tendency for "experts" to assume in a boom the good times will last forever, and in a bust the bad times will last forever. Of course, neither is true. Demand will begin with the lower costs items, but it has started and this too will result in The Great Comeback.

6. Although I have been on record for a couple of months sharing my view of the recession recovery and comeback, it is interesting to see new audiences appearing every day.
On May 1, the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) published their latest U.S. Long Leading Index (USLLI) and their Weekly Leading Index (WLS), both of which have proved very successful in predicting the economy. These indices are clearly showing the end of the Great Recession.

See this illustration of how an industry’s ‘bottoming-out’ really is a misnomer:

Consider a food company that has four divisions: economy consumables, high-end frozen dinners, high-end frozen desserts and broad-based institutional foods.

The economy consumables may not have a "bottom" at all. Sales are at record levels.

The high-end frozen dinners may "bottom" in July 2009.

The high-end frozen desserts in October 2009 and the broad-based institutional foods may not "bottom" until January 2010.

When does this company bottom? It does not. In fact, a better term for this company’s evolution rather than "bottom" is "turning point," as the market for the economy consumables may peak just before the other food sectors "bottom".

Sectors have turning points, and it is only in the context of these turning points that you can develop your Comeback Plan.

For many businesses the bottom is now. The evidence is apparent. Look at this recent article from IndustryWeek, "Intel CEO Says PC Sales ‘Bottomed Out’ in Q1: Company says industry is returning to normal seasonal patterns."

For many other business, the bottom is only a quarter away. So, it is clearly time now to begin in-depth Comeback Planning. What are you doing, or should be doing, to respond to this?

Much more essential information on The Great Comeback will be posted as a series in the next couple weeks. Be sure to subscribe to this blog so you don’t miss it. http://gogogosupplychain.tompkinsinc.com/page/Subscribe.aspx