Rarely do I look at weather forecasts, but I really wanted to know on the 4th of July how the weather was going to be around 9 PM as my wife and I had two of our grandchildren at our beach house for fireworks. Well, unfortunately the forecast was not good. Scattered thunderstorms with a 70% chance of rain at 8 PM, 60% chance at 9 and 10 PM.
My wife overruled the weather forecast and had the kids take naps so they could stay up late for the excitement. Well, as you could have guessed, the weather was beautiful with no rain until about 3 AM, and so we had a great time.
I know we all have made jokes about the inaccuracy of weather forecasts. I guess it is really hard to do this well. This really makes me think, though, why do we put so much credence into forecasts for the economy? Economic experts make big news when they make predictions for the macro economy. They enjoy explaining to us what happened last month and then forecast what they think will happen next month, next quarter and next year.
Are the economic forecasters any better then the weather forecasters? Or are my expectations of these forecasts unrealistic? I am not sure, but I do know these macro predictions are not applicable to many of your companies or your industries. Right now, many of these macro economic forecasts are about as useful as the weather forecast I got for the 4th of July.
In thinking about this, I decided I wanted to use this space to examine the word "forecast" as it applies to business strategy. I think we say the word "forecast" so often, it has lost its true meaning over time. As a regular feature on this blog, I look at jargon like this to help us remember what over-used words actually mean.
Personally, I think of the word forecast in terms of the two words found within it: "fore," which you yell in the game of golf to warn others to duck, and "cast," which when you go fishing, means to throw out. For me, if there is a forecast around, it means: Duck! And then… throw it out!
That’s my simplified definition, but there is more to it. I chose to look at a definition of the word forecast more deeply because there is just too much that can't be predicted within individual business sectors right now. Forecasts no longer apply (and I realize how baffling and frustrating this development has become). Looking through business news, you can find lots of examples of forecasts being revised by public companies because they aren't right, or new information affects them, or forecasts turn out to be totally wrong.
I included an example of how forecasting plays out in the real world in the business novel Caught Between the Tiger and the Dragon. The main character Rich Morrison, a CEO of a lingerie manufacturing company, is constantly being badgered into creating new forecasts.
His private equity bosses who own the lingerie company become alarmed at the smallest market changes – from gas price swings to the financial state of the companies that buy from them.
Rich gets phone calls from the bosses at all hours of the day and night to submit new forecasts based on others’ forecasts, which, as you can imagine, is incredibly frustrating.
Even though Rich dutifully creates forecasts to the best of his ability, his bosses only want to listen to the latest trends and alarmist news instead of the longer-term facts and figures that Rich is sure are the most appropriate for his company.
Even so, Rich knows that forecasts are not worth the paper they are printed on. He understands that forecasts must always be revised, because they are based on uncertainties. As Peter Drucker said, "Uncertainty – in the economy, society and politics – has become so great as to render futile, if not counterproductive, the kind of planning most companies still practice: forecasting based on probabilities."
Forecasts can be useful, but depending on them and adjusting them for every little thing can be counterproductive, as Drucker points out. It can make you lose sight of the actual core goals of your business. This is especially true when depending on a macro view of the economy to make sense of your industry.
This is also why some companies aren’t providing future predictions of their quarterly performance any longer – it is counterproductive not only for them, but for their investors. In the June 8 Fortune magazine article "Five Moves to Make Now," it recommends "that companies stop forecasting their quarterly earnings, before and during the quarter." The article also notes that "Respected firms [such] as Aetna, GE, Intel and Unilever have stopped giving quarterly guidance in recent months." I hope more consider joining them, especially now in this time of major uncertainty.
You can keep reading and creating the forecasts if you want, but I suggest taking them with a grain of salt or determining if it is really a productive use of your time right now.
Go!Go!Go!
Note: I've got a series of podcasts coming up on the topic of The Great Comeback that will illustrate the micro-economic strategy that businesses should use to recover, grow and prosper after the recession ends. Go here to subscribe for updates when these podcasts are released at
http://www.tompkinsinc.com/podcast
Also, for a rundown on The Great Comeback and what it means for your company, you can download the white paper I wrote about the subject here.