You’ve seen the opinions of Chris
Ferrell, transportation expert and Director of the Tompkins Supply Chain Consortium, several
times on this blog. Today, he shares his insight into how issues past,
present and future affect the ever-evolving transportation industry.
-- Jim
Now that the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration
(FMCSA) has made an announcement on its highly-anticipated Hours of
Service (HOS) rule, one of the major points of uncertainty within the
transportation industry has been removed.
Whether or not the HOS decision
was good is largely a matter of perspective.
From the carrier/shipper point of view, it is fair to say
that while the new law is more restrictive than the current regulation, the
final product isn’t nearly as limiting as what was originally proposed. The
regulation officially hits the books this month, but it will not be subject to
compliance until July 2013.
I’m not sure “it could have been worse” really counts as a
victory for shippers and carriers. It does represent the elimination of a
substantial amount of uncertainty which, in this economy, is enough to restrain
investment in both capital equipment and long-term relationships.
So, with that significant hurdle
crossed, what’s the next big item to watch for?
While professionals within the transportation industry may
make strong, valid cases for driver shortage or equipment age, I believe the
statistic to really watch will be fuel.
There is ample
evidence to support the argument that when gasoline prices cross the $4.00
barrier, consumers begin to substantially scale back on other expenditures. And
while the current national average
has been hovering around $3.40 to $3.50, this has been largely due to weakened
global demand during a prolonged and tepid economic recovery.
The other potential uncertainty with fuel is on the supply
side of the Middle East. For more insight on
this, refer to the excellent
and succinct analysis of Logistics
Management’s Derik Andreoli.
What does the future hold? Well, for one, the civil unrest which
occurred during the Arab Spring of 2011 could once again wreak havoc on oil
prices in 2012. When the events first occurred, average gas prices briefly spiked
above the $4.00 barrier in May before President Obama tapped into the nation’s
strategic oil reserves for the sole purpose of keeping the fledgling economic
recovery on track.
Now, with Iran
rattling sabers, Libya still
picking up the pieces from a regime change, lingering unrest in Egypt, accelerated protests in Syria, and Iraq preparing for life without the
presence of the U.S. Military, there is a lot of uncertainty that will need
favorable outcomes to avoid any kind of supply disruption.
And beginning at a $3.40 price point, if the economy really
starts to heat up, or if there is even a small problem in one of a number of
OPEC nations, there is not a lot of room between current prices and the point
at which consumers are compelled to divert all of their discretionary spending
to fuel – a sort of self-imposed governor on the economic engine.
So pay attention to your price at the pump, knowing that the
ramifications of fuel reach far beyond your pocket book or the transportation
industry and into every corner of the economic recovery.
Also, let us know what you think will have the greatest
impact on transportation in the next eight months – fuel, regulations, other?
- Chris Ferrell
More Resources
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Reveals Industry Insights into Volume, Capacity and Pricing
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